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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 25

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(4:11) 39-C.Little 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.80 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model