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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 26

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 26

What Actually Happened

(14:20) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short middle to 5-D.Robinson.

The Three Options

GO +2.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.39 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.14 EP
  • 86% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 36, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model