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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 8

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(8:36) 18-E.Pineiro 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.99 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 8, worth +0.43 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model