4th & Data
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Washington Commanders

HC Dan Quinn
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Atlanta Falcons

HC Raheem Morris
Sunday 2025-09-28 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

WAS
53.5%
ATL
46.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: +0.115 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • WAS defense: +0.100 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Michael Penix (ATL): -0.005 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

WAS 23
–
ATL 22
Projected margin: WAS by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

WAS

Noah Brown WR Out Groin
Terry McLaurin WR Out Quadricep
John Bates TE Out Calf
Percy Butler S Out Hip
Jayden Daniels QB Out Knee
Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB Questionable Knee

ATL

KhaDarel Hodge WR Out Groin
A.J. Terrell CB Out Hamstring
Nate Carter RB Out Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 27
–
ATL 34

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:49 FG ATL (10:49) 39-J.Romo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. WAS 0 – ATL 3
  • Q1 00:52 TD ATL (:52) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 5-D.London for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – ATL 9
  • Q2 11:36 TD WAS (11:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 11-L.McCaffrey for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – ATL 10
  • Q2 08:34 TD ATL (8:34) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right tackle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 7 – ATL 16
  • Q2 05:29 FG WAS (5:29) 16-M.Gay 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. ** Injury Update: ATL-28-M.Ford has returned to the game. WAS 10 – ATL 17
  • Q3 10:16 FG WAS (10:16) 16-M.Gay 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. WAS 13 – ATL 17
  • Q3 09:30 TD ATL (9:30) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 8-K.Pitts for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 13 – ATL 23
  • Q3 04:26 FG WAS (4:26) 16-M.Gay 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. WAS 16 – ATL 24
  • Q3 00:22 TD ATL (:22) (Shotgun) 25-T.Allgeier right end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 16 – ATL 30
  • Q4 08:53 TD WAS (8:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 1-D.Samuel for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN [56-L.Floyd]. WAS 22 – ATL 31
  • Q4 02:00 FG ATL (2:00) 39-J.Romo 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. WAS 24 – ATL 34
  • Q4 01:33 FG WAS (1:33) 16-M.Gay 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. WAS 27 – ATL 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 7 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 93%

    (10:49) 39-J.Romo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 16 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (9:09) 10-T.Way punts 47 yards to ATL 27, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 14-J.Agnew.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 2 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 88%

    (4:28) 25-T.Allgeier right guard to WAS 22 for 3 yards (54-B.Wagner).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 10
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 97%

    (12:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 1-D.Samuel pushed ob at ATL 6 for 4 yards (20-D.Alford).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 6 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 88%

    (5:29) 16-M.Gay 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. ** Injury Update: ATL-28-M.Ford has returned to the game.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 32%

    (2:00) 13-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to WAS 8, Center-49-L.McCullough. 83-J.Lane MUFFS catch, and recovers at WAS 8.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 14 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (:36) 10-T.Way punts 46 yards to ATL 25, impetus ends at ATL 29, Center-69-T.Ott. 28-M.Ford to ATL 25 for no gain.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (:07) 13-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to WAS 24, Center-49-L.McCullough. 83-J.Lane MUFFS catch, recovered by WAS-34-A.Hamilton at WAS 24. 34-A.Hamilton to WAS 27 for 3 yards (22-C.Phillips).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 7 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 75%

    (10:16) 16-M.Gay 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 8 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 90%

    (4:26) 16-M.Gay 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 3 at the 24
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 89%

    (8:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 1-D.Samuel for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN [56-L.Floyd].

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 8 at the 8 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%

    (2:00) 39-J.Romo 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.