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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 8

Atlanta Falcons 31 – Washington Commanders 24

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 39-J.Romo 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.56 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 8, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model