Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 14 at the 71

Washington Commanders 10 – Atlanta Falcons 17

(:36) 10-T.Way punts 46 yards to ATL 25, impetus ends at ATL 29, Center-69-T.Ott. 28-M.Ford to ATL 25 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.38 EP
67% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 71, worth -3.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model