4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 34

Washington Commanders 10 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(10:16) 16-M.Gay 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.21 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 34, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.52 EP
What Happened
  • 75% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 44, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model