Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 72

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(:07) 13-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to WAS 24, Center-49-L.McCullough. 83-J.Lane MUFFS catch, recovered by WAS-34-A.Hamilton at WAS 24. 34-A.Hamilton to WAS 27 for 3 yards (22-C.Phillips).

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.14 EP
57% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 72, worth -2.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model