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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 24

Washington Commanders 16 – Atlanta Falcons 31

What Actually Happened

(8:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 1-D.Samuel for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN [56-L.Floyd].

The Three Options

GO +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.27 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 34, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model