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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 25

Washington Commanders 7 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(5:29) 16-M.Gay 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. ** Injury Update: ATL-28-M.Ford has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.55 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.03 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 35, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model