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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 2 at the 25
Atlanta Falcons 3 – Washington Commanders 0
What Actually Happened
(4:28) 25-T.Allgeier right guard to WAS 22 for 3 yards (54-B.Wagner).
The Three Options
GO
+2.39 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.62 EP
- 42% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25, worth -0.70 EP
KICK
+1.51 EP
- 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
- 12% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 35, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT
+0.14 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
