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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 20

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(10:49) 39-J.Romo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.31 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 20, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model