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LAC Away

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Jim Harbaugh
@
NYG Home

New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
Sunday 2025-09-28 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -6.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

LAC
60.9%
NYG
39.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG defense: +0.143 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • LAC offense: +0.066 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • NYG offense: -0.069 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LAC 26
–
NYG 20
Projected margin: LAC by 6 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

LAC

Will Dissly TE Out Knee
Mekhi Becton G Out Concussion
Derius Davis WR Out Knee
Bradley Bozeman C Questionable Back
Elijah Molden S Questionable Hamstring

NYG

Graham Gano K Out Groin
Chauncey Golston DE Out Ankle
Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB Out Shoulder
Rakeem Nunez-Roches DT Doubtful Foot

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 18
–
NYG 21

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:25 TD NYG (9:25) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart up the middle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 0 – NYG 6
  • Q2 13:52 FG NYG (13:52) 99-J.McAtamney 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan. LAC 0 – NYG 10
  • Q2 08:10 FG LAC (8:10) 11-C.Dicker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott. PENALTY on LAC-74-A.Deculus, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. LAC 3 – NYG 10
  • Q2 01:56 FG NYG (1:56) 99-J.McAtamney 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan. LAC 3 – NYG 13
  • Q2 00:34 TD LAC (:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 1-Q.Johnston for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 9 – NYG 13
  • Q3 02:54 TD NYG (2:54) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short middle to 84-T.Johnson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on LAC-96-N.Jones, Unnecessary Roughness, 1 yard, enforced between downs. LAC 10 – NYG 19
  • Q3 01:37 TD LAC (1:37) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton right tackle for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 16 – NYG 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (13:44) 16-J.Scott punts 51 yards to NYG 11, Center-41-R.Lovato, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 5 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 46%

    (5:47) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to NYG 1, Center-41-R.Lovato, downed by LAC-24-B.St-Juste.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 13 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (2:07) 12-J.Gillan punts 58 yards to LAC 22, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 29-T.Still to LAC 33 for 11 yards (24-D.Belton).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (13:52) 99-J.McAtamney 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 15 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 88%

    (8:10) 11-C.Dicker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott. PENALTY on LAC-74-A.Deculus, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 11 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (1:56) 99-J.McAtamney 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 17 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (11:00) 12-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to LAC 9, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 29-T.Still to LAC 15 for 6 yards (85-C.Manhertz; 47-N.Hewitt). PENALTY on LAC-20-C.Hart, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at LAC 9.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 9 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:05) 16-J.Scott punts 60 yards to NYG 7, Center-41-R.Lovato. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 22 for 15 yards (45-T.Tuipulotu). PENALTY on NYG-31-N.Jones, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at NYG 7. Penalty on NYG-54-S.Bozeman, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 13 at the 99
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (5:24) 12-J.Gillan punts 69 yards to LAC 30, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 29-T.Still to LAC 41 for 11 yards (24-D.Belton; 31-N.Jones).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 12 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 59%

    (12:24) 12-J.Gillan punts 31 yards to LAC 9, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 15-L.McConkey.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 2 at the 83
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP
    p(convert) 67%

    (11:31) 16-J.Scott punts 31 yards to LAC 48, Center-41-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 99%

    (5:44) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass incomplete short right to 17-W.Robinson (32-A.Gilman).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 4 at the 53 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 27%

    (:31) 12-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to LAC 13, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 29-T.Still to LAC 16 for 3 yards (85-C.Manhertz).