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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 13 at the 80

New York Giants 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:07) 12-J.Gillan punts 58 yards to LAC 22, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 29-T.Still to LAC 33 for 11 yards (24-D.Belton).

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.88 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 37, worth -1.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model