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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 83

Los Angeles Chargers 18 – New York Giants 21

What Actually Happened

(11:31) 16-J.Scott punts 31 yards to LAC 48, Center-41-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.82 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 83, worth -4.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.11 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 41, worth -2.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP