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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 3

New York Giants 21 – Los Angeles Chargers 18

What Actually Happened

(5:44) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass incomplete short right to 17-W.Robinson (32-A.Gilman).

The Three Options

GO +2.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.61 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.09 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model