4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 4

New York Giants 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:52) 99-J.McAtamney 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +2.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.86 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 4, worth +0.57 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP