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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 12 at the 40

New York Giants 21 – Los Angeles Chargers 18

What Actually Happened

(12:24) 12-J.Gillan punts 31 yards to LAC 9, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 15-L.McConkey.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.23 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.94 EP
KICK -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model