Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 17 at the 55

New York Giants 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(11:00) 12-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to LAC 9, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 29-T.Still to LAC 15 for 6 yards (85-C.Manhertz; 47-N.Hewitt). PENALTY on LAC-20-C.Hart, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at LAC 9.

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.48 EP
75% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model