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Carolina Panthers

HC Dave Canales
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Mike Vrabel
Sunday 2025-09-28 · 13:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌧 Rain Spread 5.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

CAR
46.4%
NE
53.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE defense: +0.098 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • CAR defense: +0.118 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • CAR offense: +0.017 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CAR 22
–
NE 23
Projected margin: NE by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

CAR

D.J. Wonnum LB Out Hip
Patrick Jones II LB Out Hamstring
Xavier Legette WR Out Hamstring
Ja'Tavion Sanders TE Out Ankle
Tershawn Wharton DT Questionable Hamstring
Chuba Hubbard RB Questionable Calf
Tetairoa McMillan WR Questionable Calf

NE

Jared Wilson G Out Ankle
Mike Onwenu G Questionable Shoulder
K'Lavon Chaisson LB Questionable Knee
Christian Gonzalez CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 13
–
NE 42

Prediction missed by 28 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:56 TD CAR (10:56) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 82-T.Tremble for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – NE 0
  • Q1 05:55 TD NE (5:55) 6-S.Martin punts 30 yards to NE 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 25-M.Jones for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-22-C.Woods was injured during the play. CAR 6 – NE 6
  • Q2 15:00 TD NE (15:00) 10-D.Maye scrambles left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – NE 13
  • Q2 05:53 TD NE (5:53) (Shotgun) 32-T.Henderson right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – NE 20
  • Q2 02:00 TD NE (2:00) 59-V.Lowe reported in as eligible. 4-A.Gibson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: CAR-92-C.Jackson has returned to the game. CAR 6 – NE 27
  • Q3 10:27 TD NE (10:27) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 85-H.Henry for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – NE 34
  • Q4 14:16 TD NE (14:16) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 13-M.Hollins for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – NE 41
  • Q4 02:00 TD CAR (2:00) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 84-M.Evans for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 12 – NE 42

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (9:26) 17-B.Baringer punts 48 yards to CAR 15, Center-47-J.Ashby. 23-T.Etienne ran ob at CAR 23 for 8 yards (21-J.Hawkins).

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 8 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 49%

    (5:55) 6-S.Martin punts 30 yards to NE 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 25-M.Jones for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-22-C.Woods was injured during the play.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 11 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 54%

    (3:05) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback. ** Injury Update: NE-22-C.Woods has returned to the game.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 16 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 64%

    (9:59) 10-R.Fitzgerald 55 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (4:23) 6-S.Martin punts 53 yards to NE 25, Center-44-J.Jansen. 25-M.Jones to CAR 14 for 61 yards (6-S.Martin).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:36) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to NE 2, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 5 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (:12) 17-B.Baringer punts 59 yards to CAR 34, Center-47-J.Ashby. 13-H.Renfrow to CAR 47 for 13 yards (41-B.Schooler; 42-D.Harris).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 5 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 69%

    (6:33) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep right to 4-T.McMillan.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (4:32) 17-B.Baringer punts 56 yards to CAR 3, Center-47-J.Ashby. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 1 for -2 yards (41-B.Schooler).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 6 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (2:34) 6-S.Martin punts 55 yards to NE 40, Center-44-J.Jansen. 25-M.Jones to CAR 41 for 19 yards (48-T.Incoom; 53-C.Cherelus).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 3 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 71%

    (:19) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 8-S.Diggs pushed ob at CAR 4 for 30 yards (2-M.Jackson).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 2 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 54%

    (10:22) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short middle [90-C.Barmore]. Penalty on CAR-79-I.Ekwonu, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 2 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.30 EP
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 29%

    (8:47) 17-B.Baringer punts 42 yards to CAR 9, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 2 at the 2 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 99%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 84-M.Evans for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.