4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 43

Carolina Panthers 6 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(5:55) 6-S.Martin punts 30 yards to NE 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 25-M.Jones for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-22-C.Woods was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.43 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 43, worth -2.45 EP
KICK -0.88 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.99 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model