Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 95

Carolina Panthers 6 – New England Patriots 35

(2:34) 6-S.Martin punts 55 yards to NE 40, Center-44-J.Jansen. 25-M.Jones to CAR 41 for 19 yards (48-T.Incoom; 53-C.Cherelus).

The Three Options

GO -2.92 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.14 EP
51% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 95, worth -5.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model