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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 16 at the 37

Carolina Panthers 6 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(9:59) 10-R.Fitzgerald 55 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.28 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 37, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 46, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model