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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 93

New England Patriots 28 – Carolina Panthers 6

What Actually Happened

(:12) 17-B.Baringer punts 59 yards to CAR 34, Center-47-J.Ashby. 13-H.Renfrow to CAR 47 for 13 yards (41-B.Schooler; 42-D.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -2.26 EP
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.01 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 93, worth -4.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 51, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model