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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 54

Carolina Panthers 6 – New England Patriots 28

What Actually Happened

(:36) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to NE 2, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.30 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 54, worth -2.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 16, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model