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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 11 at the 41

Carolina Panthers 6 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(3:05) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback. ** Injury Update: NE-22-C.Woods has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.77 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 41, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -0.70 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model