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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 51

New England Patriots 42 – Carolina Panthers 6

What Actually Happened

(8:47) 17-B.Baringer punts 42 yards to CAR 9, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.49 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.62 EP
KICK -1.45 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.30 EP