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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 59

New England Patriots 35 – Carolina Panthers 6

What Actually Happened

(4:32) 17-B.Baringer punts 56 yards to CAR 3, Center-47-J.Ashby. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 1 for -2 yards (41-B.Schooler).

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.16 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP