Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- CHI offense: -0.101 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- LV offense: -0.075 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
- CHI defense: +0.101 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- Caleb Williams (CHI): -0.019 EPA/dropback in prior starts
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 4
CHI
LV
Pulled fresh for 2025 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:58 FG CHI (9:58) 8-C.Santos 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. CHI 3 – LV 0
- Q1 00:13 TD LV (:13) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 2-A.Jeanty for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 3 – LV 6
- Q2 04:26 FG CHI (4:26) 8-C.Santos 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. CHI 6 – LV 7
- Q2 04:15 TD LV (4:15) 2-A.Jeanty left guard for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – LV 13
- Q2 00:58 FG CHI (:58) 8-C.Santos 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. CHI 9 – LV 14
- Q3 11:44 TD CHI (11:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 15-R.Odunze for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 15 – LV 14
- Q3 05:29 TD LV (5:29) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 2-A.Jeanty for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 16 – LV 20
- Q4 11:43 FG CHI (11:43) 8-C.Santos 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. CHI 19 – LV 21
- Q4 06:48 FG LV (6:48) 8-D.Carlson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. CHI 19 – LV 24
- Q4 01:39 TD CHI (1:39) 4-D.Swift left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 25 – LV 24
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CHI 4th & 3 at the 64Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EPp(convert) 53%
(13:24) 19-T.Taylor punts 46 yards to LV 18, Center-46-S.Daly. 1-T.Tucker to LV 25 for 7 yards (36-J.Owens; 92-D.Hardy).
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Q1 CHI 4th & 14 at the 28Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 85%
(9:58) 8-C.Santos 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
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Q1 LV 4th & 1 at the 65Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72%
(7:21) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LV 30 for -5 yards (97-A.Billings, 44-N.Sewell). FUMBLES (44-N.Sewell), touched at LV 24, RECOVERED by CHI-29-T.Stevenson at LV 20.
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Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 60Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70%
(13:33) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 4-D.Swift pushed ob at CHI 47 for 7 yards (11-J.Chinn).
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Q2 CHI 4th & 9 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 75%
(:58) 8-C.Santos 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
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Q3 CHI 4th & 6 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(3:43) 19-T.Taylor punts 62 yards to LV 2, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-36-J.Owens. PENALTY on LV-44-T.Eichenberg, Offensive Holding, 1 yard, enforced at LV 2.
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Q3 LV 4th & 3 at the 92Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EPp(convert) 58%
(1:22) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to CHI 32, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 12-D.Duvernay to LV 49 for 19 yards (51-M.Koonce).
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Q4 LV 4th & 11 at the 11Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%
(6:48) 8-D.Carlson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
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Q4 LV 4th & 3 at the 36 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51% p(FG) 71%
(:38) 8-D.Carlson 54 yard field goal is BLOCKED (39-J.Blackwell), Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.