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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 92

Las Vegas Raiders 21 – Chicago Bears 16

What Actually Happened

(1:22) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to CHI 32, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 12-D.Duvernay to LV 49 for 19 yards (51-M.Koonce).

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.16 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 92, worth -5.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.70 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 50, worth -2.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP