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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 65

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(7:21) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LV 30 for -5 yards (97-A.Billings, 44-N.Sewell). FUMBLES (44-N.Sewell), touched at LV 24, RECOVERED by CHI-29-T.Stevenson at LV 20.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.99 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 65, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 23, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model