Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 64

Chicago Bears 16 – Las Vegas Raiders 21

What Actually Happened

(3:43) 19-T.Taylor punts 62 yards to LV 2, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-36-J.Owens. PENALTY on LV-44-T.Eichenberg, Offensive Holding, 1 yard, enforced at LV 2.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.09 EP
58% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 64, worth -3.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model