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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 36

Las Vegas Raiders 24 – Chicago Bears 25

What Actually Happened

(:38) 8-D.Carlson 54 yard field goal is BLOCKED (39-J.Blackwell), Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +1.97 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 36, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.56 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 46, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model