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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 34

Chicago Bears 6 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(:58) 8-C.Santos 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +3.32 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 34, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 44, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model