4th & Data
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Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
@
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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
Sunday 2025-09-28 · 13:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 10.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

CLE
13.2%
DET
86.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.272 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • DET offense: +0.239 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to DET: Jared Goff (DET) +0.369 vs Joe Flacco (CLE) -0.099 EPA/dropback
  • DET defense: +0.136 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

CLE 17
–
DET 31
Projected margin: DET by 14 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

CLE

Mike Hall Jr. DT Out Knee
Jack Conklin T Questionable Elbow

DET

Zach Cunningham LB Out Hamstring
Daniel Thomas S Out Forearm
Sione Vaki RB Out Groin
Taylor Decker T Questionable Shoulder
Al-Quadin Muhammad DE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 10
–
DET 34

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:41 TD CLE (5:41) 98-A.Huntington and 56-L.Wypler reported in as eligible. 10-Q.Judkins left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – DET 0
  • Q1 03:26 TD DET (3:26) 0-J.Gibbs right end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 7 – DET 6
  • Q2 14:20 FG DET (14:20) 39-J.Bates 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. CLE 7 – DET 10
  • Q2 03:04 TD DET (3:04) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 7 – DET 16
  • Q2 00:12 FG DET (:12) 39-J.Bates 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. CLE 7 – DET 20
  • Q3 06:47 FG CLE (6:47) 25-A.Szmyt 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 10 – DET 20
  • Q4 13:56 TD DET (13:56) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 39 yards to DET 35, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 11-K.Raymond for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET-25-J.Saylors was injured during the play. CLE 10 – DET 26
  • Q4 04:09 TD DET (4:09) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 10 – DET 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 3 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 39%

    (12:53) 3-J.Fox punts 37 yards to CLE 12, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 2-D.Carter.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 99%

    (5:41) 98-A.Huntington and 56-L.Wypler reported in as eligible. 10-Q.Judkins left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 7 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 82%

    (14:20) 39-J.Bates 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 10 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (9:19) 3-J.Fox punts 53 yards to CLE 8, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 2-D.Carter.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 83
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (7:44) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to DET 39, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 11 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (6:10) 3-J.Fox punts 42 yards to CLE 20, Center-49-H.Hatten. 2-D.Carter MUFFS catch, and recovers at CLE 19.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 7 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:03) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to DET 17, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 11-K.Raymond to DET 16 for -1 yards (28-T.Avery).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 4 at the 40
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 62%

    (:12) 39-J.Bates 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 10 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 35%

    (12:40) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to DET 5, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 11-K.Raymond to DET 10 for 5 yards (30-D.Bush).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 7 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 96%

    (6:47) 25-A.Szmyt 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 4 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (5:23) 3-J.Fox punts 41 yards to CLE 16, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 2-D.Carter.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 16 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 67%

    (1:30) 25-A.Szmyt 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 2 at the 24
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 89%

    (14:55) 0-J.Gibbs right end pushed ob at CLE 23 for 1 yard (30-D.Bush).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 7 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (13:56) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 39 yards to DET 35, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 11-K.Raymond for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET-25-J.Saylors was injured during the play.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (12:55) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to DET 17, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 8 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 30%

    (9:08) 3-J.Fox punts 47 yards to CLE 6, Center-49-H.Hatten, out of bounds. ** Injury Update: DET-25-J.Saylors has returned to the game.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 7 at the 62 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:36) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to DET 16, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 11-K.Raymond to DET 21 for 5 yards (17-J.Baker; 28-T.Avery).