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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 64

Cleveland Browns 7 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(1:03) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to DET 17, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 11-K.Raymond to DET 16 for -1 yards (28-T.Avery).

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.74 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 64, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 22, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model