Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 11 at the 62

Detroit Lions 10 – Cleveland Browns 7

(6:10) 3-J.Fox punts 42 yards to CLE 20, Center-49-H.Hatten. 2-D.Carter MUFFS catch, and recovers at CLE 19.

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.64 EP
63% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 62, worth -3.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model