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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 83

Cleveland Browns 7 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(7:44) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to DET 39, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.92 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 83, worth -4.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.09 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 41, worth -2.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP