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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 30

Detroit Lions 7 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(14:20) 39-J.Bates 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.49 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 40, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model