Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 74

Cleveland Browns 10 – Detroit Lions 20

What Actually Happened

(13:56) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 39 yards to DET 35, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 11-K.Raymond for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET-25-J.Saylors was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +0.98 EP
61% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 74, worth -4.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model