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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 16 at the 38

Cleveland Browns 10 – Detroit Lions 20

What Actually Happened

(1:30) 25-A.Szmyt 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.40 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 38, worth -2.07 EP
KICK +0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 47, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model