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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 1

Cleveland Browns 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(5:41) 98-A.Huntington and 56-L.Wypler reported in as eligible. 10-Q.Judkins left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.50 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 1, worth +0.32 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model