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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 49

Detroit Lions 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(12:53) 3-J.Fox punts 37 yards to CLE 12, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 2-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.42 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
KICK -0.80 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP