Value Picks — Week 5

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

HOU @ BAL Disagrees with the line

Model: BAL 62.6% Line: HOU 57.3% 19.9-pt gap vs. the line

TB @ SEA Disagrees with the line

Model: TB 58.1% Line: SEA 60.2% 18.3-pt gap vs. the line

NYG @ NO Disagrees with the line

Model: NYG 55.3% Line: NO 54.4% 9.7-pt gap vs. the line

KC @ JAX

Model: KC 50.7% Line: KC 60.2% 9.5-pt gap vs. the line

TEN @ ARI

Model: ARI 80.4% Line: ARI 71.1% 9.3-pt gap vs. the line

SF @ LA

Model: LA 64.5% Line: LA 73.6% 9.1-pt gap vs. the line

MIA @ CAR Disagrees with the line

Model: CAR 53.8% Line: MIA 54.4% 8.2-pt gap vs. the line

MIN @ CLE

Model: MIN 67.2% Line: MIN 60.2% 7.0-pt gap vs. the line

LV @ IND

Model: IND 65.9% Line: IND 69.8% 3.9-pt gap vs. the line

NE @ BUF

Model: BUF 74.3% Line: BUF 71.1% 3.2-pt gap vs. the line

DET @ CIN

Model: DET 75.4% Line: DET 78.2% 2.8-pt gap vs. the line

WAS @ LAC

Model: LAC 58.9% Line: LAC 57.3% 1.6-pt gap vs. the line

DEN @ PHI

Model: PHI 60.8% Line: PHI 60.2% 0.6-pt gap vs. the line

DAL @ NYJ

Model: NYJ 54.0% Line: NYJ 54.4% 0.4-pt gap vs. the line