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New England Patriots

HC Mike Vrabel
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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2025-10-05 · 20:20 New Era Field, Orchard Park US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.5 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

NE
26.1%
BUF
73.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.198 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Josh Allen (BUF): +0.287 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • BUF defense: +0.039 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • NE defense: +0.079 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NE 20
–
BUF 28
Projected margin: BUF by 8 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

NE

K'Lavon Chaisson LB Out Knee
Carlton Davis III CB Questionable Illness
Jahlani Tavai LB Questionable Calf
Milton Williams DT Questionable Ankle

BUF

Dorian Williams LB Out Knee
Dorian Strong CB Out Neck
Matt Milano LB Questionable Pectoral
Ed Oliver DT Questionable Ankle
Spencer Brown T Questionable Calf
T.J. Sanders DT Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 23
–
BUF 20

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 00:59 FG NE (:59) 36-A.Borregales 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NE 3 – BUF 0
  • Q2 09:37 FG BUF (9:37) 15-M.Prater 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. NE 3 – BUF 3
  • Q2 00:01 FG NE (:01) 36-A.Borregales 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NE 6 – BUF 3
  • Q3 09:24 TD BUF (9:24) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 1-C.Samuel for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – BUF 9
  • Q3 06:38 TD NE (6:38) 38-R.Stevenson left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on BUF-97-J.Bosa, Defensive Offside, declined. NE 12 – BUF 10
  • Q4 12:14 TD NE (12:14) 38-R.Stevenson left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 19 – BUF 10
  • Q4 07:40 TD BUF (7:40) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 0-K.Coleman for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 20 – BUF 16
  • Q4 02:21 FG BUF (2:21) 15-M.Prater 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. NE 20 – BUF 20
  • Q4 00:20 FG NE (:20) 36-A.Borregales 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NE 23 – BUF 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 9 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:26) 17-B.Baringer punts 40 yards to BUF 14, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 10-K.Shakir.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 10 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 55%

    (6:24) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 27 yards to NE 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds. PENALTY on BUF-45-S.Thompson, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at NE 15.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 3 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 34%

    (2:24) 17-B.Baringer punts 36 yards to BUF 14, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 10-K.Shakir.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 11 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (:59) 36-A.Borregales 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 6 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 96%

    (9:37) 15-M.Prater 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 8 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 30%

    (6:34) 17-B.Baringer punts 42 yards to BUF 10, Center-47-J.Ashby, downed by NE-24-D.Pettus.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 15 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:32) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to NE 30, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 25-M.Jones pushed ob at NE 30 for no gain (28-S.Franklin).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 7 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (6:01) 17-B.Baringer punts 73 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Ashby, Touchback.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 10 at the 27 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 85%

    (2:21) 15-M.Prater 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 5 at the 34 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 74%

    (:20) 36-A.Borregales 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.