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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 34

New England Patriots 20 – Buffalo Bills 20

What Actually Happened

(:20) 36-A.Borregales 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +1.02 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 34, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.77 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 44, worth -0.45 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model