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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 50

New England Patriots 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(2:24) 17-B.Baringer punts 36 yards to BUF 14, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 10-K.Shakir.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.75 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 50, worth -3.03 EP
KICK -1.56 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.27 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP