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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 11 at the 12

New England Patriots 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(:59) 36-A.Borregales 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.35 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 12, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.30 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 22, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model