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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 27

Buffalo Bills 17 – New England Patriots 20

What Actually Happened

(2:21) 15-M.Prater 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.18 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 27, worth -1.06 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 37, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model