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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 13

Buffalo Bills 0 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(9:37) 15-M.Prater 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.57 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 13, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 23, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP